Wednesday, October 8, 2014

On A Roll: 35 30 Down 20 To Go! UPDATED

The Blood Moon is a sign of the end of days and it certainly looks that way for gay marriage bans.


What a difference two days can make. Monday morning we had marriage equality in 19 states. Monday's nonruling expanded that number to 30. By the time Tuesday's ruling from the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals striking down marriage bans in Idaho and Nevada filters out to Alaska, Arizona, and Montana, we will have marriage equality in 35 states and the District of Columbia.

If this was all a secret plan by opponents of equality it doesn't seem to be going very well. Chris Geidner at BuzzFeed has some interesting thoughts on the end game.
If an appellate court does decide to uphold a marriage ban — whether it comes from the 6th Circuit or a later decision — Justice Anthony Kennedy, as the presumed key vote on the issue, would now have a solid list of 35 to 39 states to put behind an opinion reflecting “the evolving understanding of the meaning of equality.” 
What’s more, given that only four votes are needed to grant certiorari in a Supreme Court case and given that none of the seven petitions before the court this past week could garner those four votes, it’s entirely possible that the justices — on both sides of Kennedy’s view — know that Kennedy controls the board at this point. 
The more conservative justices may believe — likely correctly — that granting certiorari in one of the cases on Monday probably would have resulted in a Kennedy opinion striking down all the remaining bans across the country. With that concern in their mind, it’s possible that they didn’t want to risk it. It’s possible that some of the justices — notably, Chief Justice John Roberts — could wish, if such is a decision is inevitable, that it come with more states already on the side of marriage equality before being handed down. 
And the more liberal justices may believe — likely correctly — that even if they could win now, that Kennedy would be more comfortable with such a decision if they could have a case come to them with more states on the marriage equality side of the ledger. It’s possible other justices — including Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer — would be in agreement with him on that point. 
In other words, when the Supreme Court decided not to decide Monday, the court effectively sketched out the end game for the marriage equality movement.
Meanwhile Monday's nonruling left the stays on Florida's marriage equality rulings on shaky ground. 
The ACLU of Florida asked a federal judge in Tuesday to lift his stay and immediately allow gay marriage in Florida. 
“In light of yesterday’s pathbreaking development, Plaintiffs respectfully submit that the Court should lift the stay immediately,” ACLU lawyers wrote to U.S. District Judge Robert L. Hinkle, based in Tallahassee, who on Aug. 21 ruled Florida’s gay-marriage ban unconstitutional. 
Hinkle said in August he would stay his ruling until after “the U.S. Supreme Court resolves the pending applications, at that time, from Utah, Oklahoma and Virginia,” according to Howard Simon, ACLU of Florida’s executive director. 
On Monday, the U.S. Supreme Court settled the gay marriage issue in Utah, Oklahoma and Virginia, along with Wisconsin and Indiana, when it announced justices would not hear appeals in federal court decisions allowing same-sex marriages in those states.
And of course Bondi is still being a toad.
Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi said through a spokeswoman that her office opposes lifting the stay. 
“As noted on page one of the plaintiffs' motion, we do not consent to the resolution sought in the motion,” spokeswoman Jennifer Meale said. “We will respond within the appropriate time.” 
Some people never change but societies certainly do.


UPDATE:

I have no idea why the court would clear 5 marriage equality stays on Monday and then issue a new one for a seemingly identical case on Wednesday. Justice Kennedy, you confuse and worry me.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Nevada- such a strong proponent of the sanctity of marriage - must be real butthurt right now.

Godwhacker said...

I haven't been covering the butthurt. I don't like to give the crybabies the time. But you're right that there is a lot of it and Joe.My.God (actual gay blog) has been covering it in detail.

South Florida Lawyers said...

Seems necessary for the 11th to weigh in on the Hinkle opinion (perhaps unfortunately depending on the panel).

Godwhacker said...

We are in a wonderful position. If we win, we win and if we lose, we win.

Anonymous said...

People will soon be able to travel to Florida for a Stand Your Ground-Themed Gay Wedding!

Godwhacker said...

And don't forget Amendment 2! When a man lies with another man as he would with a woman, they must be stoned. ;-)

Anonymous said...

this pretty much sums up how i feel about all this gay claptrap! http://youtu.be/6473d-X-PQM

Anonymous said...

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/10/08/justice-kennedy-blocks-gay-marriage-ruling-in-idaho-nevada/

Anonymous said...

Hold the pom poms:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/10/08/justice-kennedy-blocks-gay-marriage-ruling-in-idaho-nevada/

Anonymous said...

The article fails to recognize that the conservatives may be putting this thing on hold to see if they can replace one of the libs and say fuck off to Kennedy; the libs may be uncertain as to what Kennedy would do. Also, I don't think that you can say that court imposed gay marriage represents evolving standards of decency.

You really don't acknowledge just how homophobic these right wing fuckheads are - even the ones that aren't out there screaming the sky is falling.

Godwhacker said...

@11:03

I used to be a libertarian. I have been right up inside the hard right wing of bible belt America. Few people know exactly ''how homophobic these right wing fuckheads are" like I do. They are one of the primary reasons I abandoned the LP.

I can't caucus with those people. Even their 'moderates' are insane.